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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(14:23) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to NO 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.83 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model