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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 30

New Orleans Saints 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz right end to TB 26 for 4 yards (58-K.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.98 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model