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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 30

New Orleans Saints 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.96 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model