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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:41) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to TB 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-G.Hodges.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.99 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model