4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(4:35) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.83 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model