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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:13) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to TB 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.26 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model