Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.176 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- PIT offense: +0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- DeShone Kizer (CLE): -0.248 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CLE defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- PIT defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
CLE
PIT
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:52 TD PIT (10:52) (Shotgun) 88-D.Heyward-Bey right end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Reverse. 33-Toussaint received the first hand-off. CLE 0 – PIT 6
- Q2 13:32 TD PIT (13:32) 3-L.Jones pass deep right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – PIT 13
- Q2 11:49 TD CLE (11:49) 29-D.Johnson Jr. up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – PIT 14
- Q2 08:03 TD PIT (8:03) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 38-S.Ridley up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – PIT 20
- Q2 07:22 TD CLE (7:22) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short middle to 81-R.Higgins for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – PIT 21
- Q3 10:59 TD CLE (10:59) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short right to 81-R.Higgins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 20 – PIT 21
- Q3 10:54 TD PIT 5-Z.Gonzalez kicks 61 yards from CLE 35 to PIT 4. 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 21 – PIT 27
- Q3 02:09 FG CLE (2:09) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 24 – PIT 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(6:03) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 35 yards to PIT 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-36-D.Smith.
-
Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(:50) 45-R.Nix right guard to CLE 2 for -1 yards (94-C.Nassib; 53-J.Schobert).
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 99Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(14:57) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 27 yards to CLE 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-10-S.Coates. Punt was deflected by 44-Matakevich.
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(5:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CLE 32, Center-57-K.Canaday. 22-J.Peppers pushed ob at CLE 30 for -2 yards (44-T.Matakevich).
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(2:04) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to PIT 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(:27) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 29 for 14 yards (52-J.Burgess Jr.).
-
Q3 CLE 4th & 20 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 19% p(FG) 70%
(2:09) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 43%
(9:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 34 yards to CLE 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers. PENALTY on PIT-27-J.Wilcox, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 10.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 43 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 46%
(4:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 28 yards to CLE 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 27 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 82%
(1:54) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete short left to 19-C.Coleman.