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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 1

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:50) 45-R.Nix right guard to CLE 2 for -1 yards (94-C.Nassib; 53-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO +4.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 1, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model