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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 78

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(5:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CLE 32, Center-57-K.Canaday. 22-J.Peppers pushed ob at CLE 30 for -2 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.28 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 35, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model