Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

(:27) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 29 for 14 yards (52-J.Burgess Jr.).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.08 EP
70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -1.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model