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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(4:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 28 yards to CLE 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.14 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP