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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 44

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(9:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 34 yards to CLE 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers. PENALTY on PIT-27-J.Wilcox, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 10.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.94 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP