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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

What Actually Happened

(2:09) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.08 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model