4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
SEA Away

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2017-12-24 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

SEA
47.4%
DAL
52.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): -0.017 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
DAL 24
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

SEA

D.J. Alexander LB Out Concussion
Nazair Jones DT Doubtful Ankle
Bradley McDougald S Questionable Knee
Nick Vannett TE Questionable Shoulder
Frank Clark DE Questionable Toe

DAL

David Irving DE Out Concussion
Richard Ash DT Questionable Shoulder
Brice Butler WR Questionable Foot
La'el Collins T Questionable Back
Benson Mayowa DE Questionable Back
Orlando Scandrick CB Questionable Back
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 21
–
DAL 12

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:16 FG DAL (14:16) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. SEA 0 – DAL 3
  • Q2 05:53 FG DAL (5:53) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. SEA 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 01:42 TD SEA (1:42) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-J.Graham for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – DAL 6
  • Q2 00:08 FG DAL (:08) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. SEA 7 – DAL 9
  • Q3 11:29 TD SEA (11:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 21-E.Elliott INTERCEPTED by 28-J.Coleman at DAL 30. 28-J.Coleman for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-28-J.Coleman, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. SEA 13 – DAL 9
  • Q3 08:41 FG DAL (8:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. SEA 14 – DAL 12
  • Q4 12:05 TD SEA (12:05) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – DAL 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:17) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to SEA 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 31 for 9 yards (38-J.Heath).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 14 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 38%

    (10:41) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to DAL 7, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-20-J.Lane.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 31%

    (6:16) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to SEA 1, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-35-K.Frazier.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:12) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 53 yards to DAL 46, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-R.Switzer to SEA 48 for 6 yards (20-J.Lane). PENALTY on DAL-41-K.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 48.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 94%

    (14:16) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 18 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:22) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to DAL 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 37 for 10 yards (20-J.Lane).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 72%

    (5:53) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:05) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to DAL 26, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 90%

    (8:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:43) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 54 yards to DAL 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at DAL 31 for 11 yards (82-L.Willson).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (5:43) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:50) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 47 yards to DAL 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 24 for no gain (20-J.Lane). PENALTY on SEA-20-J.Lane, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 24.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 27%

    (2:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to SEA 46 for 6 yards (28-J.Coleman).