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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 21

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(8:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.20 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model