Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Dallas Cowboys 9

(12:05) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to DAL 26, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.60 EP
69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model