Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Dallas Cowboys 12

(6:43) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 54 yards to DAL 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at DAL 31 for 11 yards (82-L.Willson).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model