Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Dallas Cowboys 12

What Actually Happened

(2:50) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 47 yards to DAL 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 24 for no gain (20-J.Lane). PENALTY on SEA-20-J.Lane, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.61 EP
72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model