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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 16

Dallas Cowboys 12 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(5:43) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model