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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 52

Dallas Cowboys 12 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(2:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to SEA 46 for 6 yards (28-J.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.44 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model