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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2017-12-17 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

GB
37.1%
CAR
62.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.211 EPA/dropback in prior starts (GB starting Aaron Rodgers in place of Brett Hundley)
  • CAR offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 20
–
CAR 25
Projected margin: CAR by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

GB

Davon House CB Out Shoulder
Demetri Goodson CB Questionable Hamstring
Nick Perry LB Questionable Foot
Jake Ryan LB Questionable Knee
Jason Spriggs T Questionable Hip

CAR

Shaq Thompson LB Out Foot
Trai Turner G Out Concussion
Devin Funchess WR Questionable Shoulder
Tyler Larsen C Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 24
–
CAR 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:02 TD CAR (6:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 00:04 TD GB (:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – CAR 7
  • Q2 09:06 FG CAR (9:06) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. GB 7 – CAR 10
  • Q2 00:39 TD GB (:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-W.Horton]. GB 13 – CAR 10
  • Q3 11:39 TD CAR (11:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 88-G.Olsen for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-A.Brooks]. GB 14 – CAR 16
  • Q3 07:28 TD CAR (7:28) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 18-D.Byrd (28-J.Hawkins). Carolina challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-C.Newton pass short right to 18-D.Byrd for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – CAR 23
  • Q3 01:27 FG GB (1:27) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel. GB 17 – CAR 24
  • Q4 12:29 TD CAR (12:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 18-D.Byrd for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – CAR 30
  • Q4 02:48 TD GB (2:48) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 82-R.Rodgers for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – CAR 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:42) 8-J.Vogel punts 50 yards to CAR 10, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-K.Clay to CAR 15 for 5 yards (45-V.Biegel).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (9:06) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:28) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to GB 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-44-J.Jansen.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 60%

    (4:42) 8-J.Vogel punts 32 yards to CAR 5, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-35-J.Whitehead.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to GB 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Davis to GB 42 for 13 yards (57-A.Gachkar).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 14 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:25) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to GB 43, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-34-C.Artis-Payne.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 65%

    (2:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers right tackle to CAR 28 for 7 yards (29-M.Adams).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (1:27) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 57%

    (8:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb to CAR 26 for 12 yards (29-M.Adams).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 14 at the 30
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 76%

    (5:46) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at CAR 40 for -10 yards (sack split by 90-J.Peppers and 97-M.Addison).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 21%

    (4:03) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to GB 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Davis to GB 19 for 2 yards (43-F.Whittaker). PENALTY on CAR, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at GB 19.