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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 8-J.Vogel punts 50 yards to CAR 10, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-K.Clay to CAR 15 for 5 yards (45-V.Biegel).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.43 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model