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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 14 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.45 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP