Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 84

Carolina Panthers 10 – Green Bay Packers 7

(2:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to GB 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Davis to GB 42 for 13 yards (57-A.Gachkar).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.49 EP
62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model