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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 17 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(5:46) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at CAR 40 for -10 yards (sack split by 90-J.Peppers and 97-M.Addison).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.41 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.99 EP