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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 53

Carolina Panthers 31 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to GB 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Davis to GB 19 for 2 yards (43-F.Whittaker). PENALTY on CAR, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at GB 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.98 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model