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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 35

Green Bay Packers 14 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers right tackle to CAR 28 for 7 yards (29-M.Adams).

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model