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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Thursday 2017-12-14 · 20:25 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

DEN
38.0%
IND
62.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.214 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DEN: Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.113 vs Trevor Siemian (DEN) -0.115 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DEN 19
–
IND 23
Projected margin: IND by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

DEN

Paxton Lynch QB Out Ankle
Domata Peko DT Questionable Knee

IND

Nate Hairston CB Out Concussion
Ryan Kelly C Out Concussion
Donte Moncrief WR Out Ankle
Darrell Daniels TE Out Hamstring
Rashaan Melvin CB Out Hand

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 25
–
IND 13

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:07 TD IND (8:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – IND 6
  • Q2 06:38 FG IND (6:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. DEN 0 – IND 10
  • Q2 01:26 TD DEN (1:26) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler scrambles up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – IND 10
  • Q3 09:17 FG IND (9:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. DEN 7 – IND 13
  • Q3 04:22 TD DEN (4:22) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep left to 14-C.Latimer for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – IND 13
  • Q3 02:47 TD DEN (2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep middle to 82-J.Heuerman for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – IND 13
  • Q4 05:18 FG DEN (5:18) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 25 – IND 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 61%

    (14:11) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 27 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor. IND-85-B.Williams was injured during the play. He is Out. PENALTY on IND-28-C.Milton, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 11.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (12:45) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to IND 14, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 83%

    (6:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 72%

    (4:02) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 10-E.Sanders to IND 30 for 3 yards (37-D.White).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (1:00) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to DEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 90%

    (9:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:00) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to DEN 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to DEN 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 87-J.Taylor MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 16. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 16 for no gain (32-T.Green).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%

    (5:18) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (3:59) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (:31) (Run formation) 23-D.Booker up the middle to IND 13 for no gain (32-T.Green; 44-A.Morrison).