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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 33

Denver Broncos 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(4:02) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 10-E.Sanders to IND 30 for 3 yards (37-D.White).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.48 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model