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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 22

Denver Broncos 22 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(5:18) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.80 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model