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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 27

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.44 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model