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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 66

Denver Broncos 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(12:45) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to IND 14, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.45 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model