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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 21

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(9:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.95 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model