4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(4:00) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to DEN 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model