Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- TB offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- ATL on 3 more days rest than TB
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
ATL
TB
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:00 TD ATL (7:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-J.Hardy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – TB 0
- Q1 02:01 TD TB (2:01) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 80-O.Howard for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ATL 7 – TB 6
- Q2 13:02 TD ATL (13:02) 92-D.Poe reported in as eligible. 24-D.Freeman left guard to TB 1 for no gain (91-R.Ayers Jr.). FUMBLES (91-R.Ayers Jr.), recovered by ATL-80-L.Toilolo at TB 0. TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – TB 7
- Q2 03:17 FG ATL (3:17) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 17 – TB 7
- Q3 08:40 TD TB (8:40) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – TB 13
- Q4 08:08 TD ATL (8:08) 24-D.Freeman right end for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – TB 14
- Q4 04:16 TD TB (4:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 10-A.Humphries for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 24 – TB 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 45%
(13:30) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 41 yards to TB 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.
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Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(12:07) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to ATL 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 38 for 12 yards (53-A.Glanton).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 57%
(3:17) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(1:55) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to ATL 10, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at ATL 15 for 5 yards (82-A.Auclair).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 44%
(:32) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 26 yards to TB 18, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
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Q3 TB 4th & 12 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(12:30) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback. PENALTY on TB-65-G.Sanborn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 17 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(10:10) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 41 yards to TB 36, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 47 for 11 yards.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%
(1:22) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-W.Gholston), Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 44%
(13:29) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to ATL 13, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 63 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(1:14) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to TB 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-A.Humphries to TB 29 for 19 yards (50-B.Reed).