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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to ATL 10, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at ATL 15 for 5 yards (82-A.Auclair).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.06 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model