Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(12:30) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback. PENALTY on TB-65-G.Sanborn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.11 EP
71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -3.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model