Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(12:07) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to ATL 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 38 for 12 yards (53-A.Glanton).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.67 EP
51% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model