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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(13:29) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to ATL 13, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.56 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model