4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 41 yards to TB 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.41 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP