Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(10:10) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 41 yards to TB 36, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 47 for 11 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.97 EP
72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model