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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2017-12-10 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

IND
57.7%
BUF
42.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to IND: Nathan Peterman (BUF) -0.529 vs Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.103 EPA/dropback (BUF starting Nathan Peterman in place of Tyrod Taylor)
  • BUF offense: -0.140 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • BUF defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 20
–
BUF 18
Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

IND

Darrell Daniels TE Out Hamstring
Rashaan Melvin CB Out Hand
Donte Moncrief WR Out Ankle
Ryan Kelly C Out Concussion
Chris Milton CB Questionable Neck
Denzelle Good T Questionable Illness
Mike Person C Questionable Ankle

BUF

John Miller G Out Ankle
Seantrel Henderson T Questionable Back
Cordy Glenn T Questionable Foot
Leonard Johnson CB Questionable Knee
Tyrod Taylor QB Questionable Knee
Kyle Williams DT Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 7
–
BUF 13

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 00:31 TD BUF (:31) 2-N.Peterman pass short right to 13-K.Benjamin for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline, 5 yds. into end zone. IND 0 – BUF 6
  • Q4 01:20 TD IND (1:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 84-J.Doyle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at BUF 2. IND 6 – BUF 7
  • Q5 01:39 TD BUF (1:39) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – BUF 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 49%

    (9:49) J.Webb in at QB (N.Peterman at WR). (Shotgun) 14-J.Webb pass incomplete short right to 85-C.Clay (32-T.Green). Receiver and coverage along sideline at IND 35.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 36%

    (5:53) 23-F.Gore right guard to BUF 38 for 5 yards (58-M.Milano).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%

    (2:25) 4-A.Vinatieri 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:54) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to IND 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:51) 2-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to BUF 45, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-26-C.Geathers.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 49%

    (8:21) 2-N.Peterman pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Benjamin (42-K.Moore II). Receiver and coverage along sideline at IND 28.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 66%

    (3:41) 2-R.Sanchez punts 30 yards to BUF 2, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:16) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to BUF 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-42-P.DiMarco.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 26%

    (1:49) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:13) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to BUF 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:07) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to IND 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:09) 2-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to BUF 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 33 yards to IND 38, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:20) 2-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 71%

    (14:51) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 80-C.Rogers (23-M.Hyde). Receiver and coverage along sideline at BUF 15.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:18) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to IND 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-C.Rogers to IND 23 for 2 yards (30-L.Pitts).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 20%

    (5:44) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 13-T.Hilton to BUF 40 for 10 yards (27-T.White). Caught at BUF 46, slanting to middle.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 55%

    (3:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end pushed ob at BUF 28 for 8 yards (28-E.Gaines).