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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 50

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 13-T.Hilton to BUF 40 for 10 yards (27-T.White). Caught at BUF 46, slanting to middle.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.41 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model