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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 47

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.54 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model