4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 38

Buffalo Bills 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 2-N.Peterman pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Benjamin (42-K.Moore II). Receiver and coverage along sideline at IND 28.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.98 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model