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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 32

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 2-R.Sanchez punts 30 yards to BUF 2, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.88 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP