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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 43

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 23-F.Gore right guard to BUF 38 for 5 yards (58-M.Milano).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.76 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model