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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to IND 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.39 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP