TEN @ PIT — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Mularkey

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HC Mike Tomlin

Thursday 2017-11-16 · 20:25 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 💨 Windy Spread 7.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

TEN

29.6%

PIT

70.4%

💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

TEN offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
PIT defense: -0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
TEN defense: -0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

TEN 17

–

PIT 24

Projected margin: PIT by 7 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

TEN

No players on the report.

PIT

Joe Haden CB Out Fibula

Vance McDonald TE Questionable Ankle

James Harrison LB Questionable Back

Michael Mitchell S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 17

–

PIT 40

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:33 TD PIT (12:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-91-D.Morgan, Defensive Offside, declined. TEN 0 – PIT 6
Q1 09:45 FG PIT (9:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. TEN 0 – PIT 10
Q1 03:11 TD TEN (3:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 6 – PIT 10
Q2 01:39 FG PIT (1:39) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. TEN 7 – PIT 13
Q2 00:23 FG PIT (:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. TEN 7 – PIT 16
Q3 15:00 TD TEN (15:00) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 18-R.Matthews for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – PIT 16
Q3 10:05 TD PIT (10:05) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – PIT 22
Q3 05:38 FG TEN (5:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 17 – PIT 23
Q4 15:00 TD PIT (15:00) 74-C.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 81-J.James for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – PIT 29
Q4 12:18 TD PIT (12:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – PIT 36
Q4 05:24 FG PIT (5:24) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. TEN 17 – PIT 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PIT 4th & 20 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 20% p(FG) 84%

(9:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(1:30) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to TEN 23, Center-57-K.Canaday. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 33 for 10 yards (31-M.Hilton, 90-T.Watt).
Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 34

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 59%

(14:33) (Run formation) 8-M.Mariota up the middle to PIT 32 for 2 yards (79-J.Hargrave; 91-S.Tuitt).
Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 70%

(11:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-T.Watt), Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Q2 PIT 4th & 17 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(10:08) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to TEN 29, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.
Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(9:03) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to PIT 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 30 for 7 yards (13-T.Taylor).
Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 63

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP

p(convert) 52%

(7:09) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to TEN 4, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey. PENALTY on TEN-41-B.Trawick, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at TEN 4.
Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 10

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

(1:39) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(1:18) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to PIT 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 65%

(:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Q3 TEN 4th & 19 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 18% p(FG) 78%

(5:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 87

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(13:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to PIT 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 84-A.Brown to PIT 49 for 16 yards (89-P.Supernaw).
Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 8

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP

p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

(5:24) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 41 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 40%

(2:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 82-D.Walker INTERCEPTED by 28-S.Davis at PIT 37. 28-S.Davis to TEN 22 for 41 yards (13-T.Taylor).