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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 34

Tennessee Titans 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:33) (Run formation) 8-M.Mariota up the middle to PIT 32 for 2 yards (79-J.Hargrave; 91-S.Tuitt).

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.40 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model